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Flagship report · Mining · Data as of 14 October 2026

Africa's Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Squeeze 2026

Impact on Copperbelt and South African mining and fertiliser producers, and the outlook to 2030. Cross-verified, every claim cited.

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A feedstock shock that supply cannot answer quickly

Commercial dry-bulk traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stopped on 28 February 2026. Before the war, Gulf producers supplied about 44% of the world's seaborne sulphur. In April China announced it would stop exporting sulphuric acid; it exported 4.6 Mt in 2025. Russia has extended its own sulphur export ban to the end of 2026. Because almost all sulphur is a by-product of oil and gas processing, its output does not respond to price. (US readers may know this as the sulfur and sulfuric acid shortage.)

Seven key findings

Prices remain well above pre-war levels. Middle East FOB sulphur rose from about US$525/t in February to about US$900/t in June. October Gulf contracts eased but remain roughly 55–70% above February, because demand fell, not because supply returned.
Copperbelt sulphuric acid prices roughly doubled. Kamoa-Kakula realised about US$465/t for acid in Q2 2026 and about US$900/t in Q3 (Ivanhoe Mines).
The DRC is the most exposed producer. The IEA estimates almost 45% of DRC copper depends on acid leaching, about 1.5 Mt of output.
Zambia is a policy swing factor. Export ban in September 2025, permits from March 2026, limited exports to the DRC from May.
Integrated smelters are winning; non-integrated oxide-ore leach operations carry the cost.
South Africa is exposed mainly through fertiliser, via imported sulphur, Foskor's Richards Bay acid plant and higher MAP prices.
Logistics has become part of the price. CRU (via Reuters) reported Dar es Salaam premiums roughly doubled and lead times stretched from about three months to four to six.

Outlook to 2030

Three scenarios (AfriLens judgement, not forecasts): fast normalisation, partial normalisation (base case) and prolonged disruption. The full report sets out price paths, Copperbelt acid implications and actions for miners, smelter owners, SA fertiliser buyers, logistics operators and lenders.

What's in the full flagship

Market data: how the shock unfolded, sulphur and acid prices, the African demand base, illustrative cost impact (AfriLens estimates, method shown)
Supply routes: Dar es Salaam, Lobito, Durban/Richards Bay, Walvis Bay, Beira
Key players, impact analysis, risk matrix and scenarios to 2030
Methodology note, known data gaps and full source list
Deal Structures: possible transaction structures for the opportunity

Figures are from the report's cited sources (Ivanhoe Mines, IEA, CRU via Reuters, Grain SA, IDC and others), data as of 14 October 2026. Items the report could not verify are not quoted here. Information only; not investment, legal or procurement advice. How this was made.

Cross-verified, every claim cited.

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Frequently asked questions

Is the Strait of Hormuz open to sulphur shipments?

Commercial dry-bulk traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stopped on 28 February 2026. At our data cut-off (14 October 2026), sulphur flows through Hormuz were still about a quarter of normal, so check current status before relying on this answer.

When will China resume sulphuric acid exports?

China announced on 10 April 2026 that it would stop exporting sulphuric acid, and exports have been effectively suspended since May. The halt is expected to last until the end of 2026. Our base case (an AfriLens judgement, not a forecast) assumes some resumption at some point in 2027.

What are Zambia's sulphuric acid export permits?

Zambia banned acid exports in September 2025, moved to export permits in March 2026, and in May 2026 let Mopani and Chambishi resume limited exports to the DRC. DRC buyers should treat Zambian acid as interruptible.

How exposed is DRC copper to the acid shortage?

The IEA estimates that almost 45% of DRC copper depends on acid leaching, roughly 1.5 Mt of output. Integrated smelters are better placed; non-integrated oxide-ore leach operations carry the cost.

How does the sulphur shortage affect South African fertiliser?

South Africa uses about 11 Mt a year of sulphuric acid, roughly 7 Mt of it made by burning imported sulphur. Foskor's Richards Bay acid plant went into care and maintenance, and Grain SA data shows local MAP fertiliser prices about 30% higher year on year in June 2026.